Tuesday, June 3, 2008

The Bizarre Behaviour of the Superdelegates

For the Clinton campaign, one of the most bewildering and maddening events of the Democratic primary season has got to be the behaviour of the superdelgates. I suspect that Hillary and Bill and all in their campaign must be flabbergasted that the superdelegates did not move to Clinton's side despite swells in momentum and some huge and important wins:
Take March 4th for example, the day of the Texas and Ohio primaries. Despite the fact that Hillary Clinton won both states, with a big blue-collar win in Ohio, only 4superdelegates endorsed her in the following 2 weeks. In fact, she only gained 6 superdelegates in the month that followed. But Barack Obama, who lost big in Ohio and couldn't take the Texas primary, was endorsed by 15 supers in just the 2 weeks that followed his losses.
April 22 was the next big showdown, with the Pennsylvania primary. Another big state, another big win for Hillary Clinton, who beat Obama by 10 points and more than 200,000 votes. This primary also cemented Obama's problems with working class voters and rural Americans, a point highlighted by his infamous 'bitter' comment. But the supers? In the 2 weeks following that Clinton win, 15 supers went to her--but 18 went to Obama. This had to have had the Clinton campaign furiously perpelexed. She wins big in a crucial contest that will be a battleground state come November and Obama gets more endorsements?
Finally, there was West Virginia on May 13. Yet another state, one that may be a critical swing-state in November, overwhelmingly backed Clinton: she took every single county and won the state by 41 points. Going into West Virginia, Clinton had 270.5 supers to Barack Obama's 275. Coming out of West Virginia, another lopsided victory under her belt, Clinton gained 6 superdelegates while Obama got the support of 22.5. Puzzled? I bet. Clinton wins a swing-state by 41 points, more than half the voters say Obama is not trustworthy and 30% say they would back McCain over Obama, and the supers come out nearly 4 to 1 for Obama?
The behaviour of the superdelegates has been most unusual. Their job is to pick the candidate that is most able to win and that best suits the party. That they have ignored Obama's stumbling to the finish line and have thrown their support behind him is mind-boggling. Maybe they just got too swept up in the mindless excitement; maybe they are fearful of angering the rabid Obama supporters, some of whom are already planning to campaign against those members of Congress who backed Clinton. Whatever the reason, one of the biggest mysteries of this primary season is why they did not show up for Hillary Clinton. And I think that's one puzzle that will be on the Clintons' minds for a while as this campaign wraps up.

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