The 2008 Electoral Map: 275 - 263

With today being July 14, there are still 113 days until the 2008 United States Presidential Election. But despite that great length of time, during which anything can happen to change the race, I'm prepared to make my early prediction on the shape of the electoral map. In the race to 270 electoral votes, Barack Obama will indeed put some current previous red states in his column, namely Ohio, New Mexico & Iowa. However, there will not be a reshaping of the political landscape as his campaign insists. In fact, McCain will hold most of the Bush states and will pick up both New Hampshire and Michigan, putting him over the top and into the White House.

<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

The electoral map is particularly difficult for Obama, because even if he can manage to pick up say, Montana or Nevada, or if he can hold New Hampshire, McCain still wins. I doubt very much that Obama will pick up any surprise wins for the Democrats. Colorado will stay red, it didn't even vote for Clinton in 1996, when he won his biggest victory. The Carolina's will stay Republican, despite Obama's popularity among black voters. And Obama was trounced in the Appalachian states during the primary, so he'll struggle to win Ohio and Pennsylvania, let alone Kentucky or West Virginia. I suspect Obama will make a lot of states closer races than they have been before, especially in the South, but he will be unable to win more than a handful.
For McCain, I'm giving him Michigan because he is polling a strong second right now, and with native son Mitt Romney becoming more and more likely to be his VP choice, Michigan will flip to red. But even if it doesn't, he still can win if he holds Ohio, which Bush won in 2000 and 2004. A lot rests on Florida for McCain, however, and that is a state he must win. If Florida goes for Obama, McCain could win Ohio AND Michigan and still lose. He must win Florida and Governor Christ, a strong supporter needs to be employed to make sure he does. The only potential coup for McCain is New Jersey, which I predict will be a lot closer than it has been in the past. I don't expect it to go to McCain, but it remains a possibility.

Final Electoral College Result: McCain - 275 Obama - 263
As those 113 days tick away, these predictions may become laughable, but they may just as likely become laudable. We'll see how I do in November.