Monday, August 18, 2008
Cone of Absurdity
Barack Obama and John McCain participated in a forum at the Saddleback Church with Rick Warren (of "Purpose Driven Life" fame) to answer questions about politics, leadership and God. Obama performed decently, but it was McCain who outperformed all expectations while appearing vigorous, succinct and straight-forward. Thus, since Obama was 'beaten' in this exchange, it was time for his supporters to light the Barack-Signal and call for the most absurd, belittling attack to be launched. And here it is: McCain violated the 'Cone of Silence'. It not only sounds like the name of a low-budget sci-fi movie from the 80's, it is also an unfortunate and pathetic attempt to undermine John McCain's strong performace and attack his credibility and character. NBC's Andrea Mitchell started this all by reporting that some "Obama people" were questioning whether McCain had been able to hear the questions Warren asked Obama, thus explaining how prepared and capable he was in asnwering them when his turn came around. There was a room with no audio or video feed which was suposed to hold whichever candidate went second so that the questions would not be known in advance. McCain was in this "cone of silence" for the final two-thirds of Obama's time on stage. For the first third, McCain was not in the green room, but was instead en route in a secret service motorcade. McCain inists he had no knowledge of the questions, his staff and campaign insist he was not watching the forum while in the car, and there is no evidence from either during the debate or after that suggests McCain knew what questions were coming. The only reason this claim has risen is because McCain did so well. This charge underscores the absolute arrogance of the Obama campaign by charging that the only way McCain could outperform Obama is if he cheated. This is character assassination at work and its wrong. Considering that Barack Obama and his supporters have spent 2 years lecturing voters to ignore all the baseless claims and accusations levelled at him, its discouraging to see them so eager to spread similar charges against McCain.
Saturday, August 16, 2008
How Bush is Winning the White House for McCain
George W. Bush, once the albatross of John McCain's campaign, once the greatest obstacle for John McCain to overcome, is helping McCain win the election. The Bush Administration is undermining Barack Obama's most fundamental and defining political positions in an effort to aid McCain's White House bid. And I suspect it will be successful.
Although Obama's greatest weaknesses are foreign policy and defence, it is in these arenas that Obama has most fundamentally defined his candidacy. Obama's position on Iraq (will end it in 16 months) and on diplomacy (we must talk more to our allies AND our enemies) has been a central characteristic of his campaign thus far and was the central thrust in his attack on and defeat of Hillary Clinton in the primaries. Obama's cosmopolitan world view, his diplomacy-first policies, his bring-the-troops-home position, are the bedrock of his candidacy. And that is where President Bush has been undermining him, chipping away at the foundation of the Democratic candidate's platform.
In the last 4 weeks, Bush has made gigantic course changes on Iraq and foreign relations. Most of the media has called these moves flip-flops or as The Guardian puts it, a "remarkable turnaround". However, these moves are in fact constructed, nuanced changes designed to weaken the Democrats' positions going into the Fall election. Last month, Bush moved to adopt a "time horizon" for withdrawing troops from Iraq, reversing what was once a set-in-stone position against such a move. This will allow both the Bush Administration and the McCain campaign to adjust their positions on the increasingly unpopular war. McCain can now (and he has) suggest that troops CAN come home as the situation on the ground improves. With this, Obama's central position disappears. By using the vague language of "time horizon" Bush allows McCain and the Republicans to minimize the difference between Obama and themselves and appeal to independent voters, while not alienating the Republican base. This move seriously undercuts Obama's charge that McCain will not bring troops and wants a never-ending war.
A similar move by the Bush White House on diplomacy is undercutting Obama's central tenant of talking and negotiating with our enemies: Bush has announced a hundred new diplomatic hirings; the Administration has decided to station a diplomatic mission in Iran (the first in 30 years); Condoleeza Rice entered talks with Iran last month regarding their nuclear ambitions; and Rice personally delivered the Russia-Georgia ceasefire agreement to the Georgian President this week. Suddenly, George Bush has discovered the diplomacy that Obama has been campaigning for. And just as suddenly, Obama's calls for more talking and more negotiating don't seem so new and exciting; they no longer count as a "new form of politics" if the Bush government has already adopted them.
What these two abrupt changes by the Bush Administration represent is an effort to move the Republican Party closer to Barack Obama's core positions on foreign policy so as to eliminate those as viable reasons to vote for Obama. This election will be a referendum on Barack Obama and the perceived "riskiness" of electing an untested and inexperienced politician. If the Republicans can eliminate a few of the differences between Obama and McCain that may have driven voters into the Democrat's column, then Bush will have helped McCain win what should have been an unwinnable election. Voters have short attention spans and most Americans will just begin tuning in to the campaign in the next few weeks and THEN start making their decisions. If, come election day, there's increased diplomacy by the Bush government and McCain's talking troop withdrawal, it won't matter that Obama thought of them first, what will matter is that Obama will have lost his central thrust, he will have lost his campaign's foundation as a tenable issue, and he will have lost the election. And of all people, it will be thanks to George W. Bush.
Although Obama's greatest weaknesses are foreign policy and defence, it is in these arenas that Obama has most fundamentally defined his candidacy. Obama's position on Iraq (will end it in 16 months) and on diplomacy (we must talk more to our allies AND our enemies) has been a central characteristic of his campaign thus far and was the central thrust in his attack on and defeat of Hillary Clinton in the primaries. Obama's cosmopolitan world view, his diplomacy-first policies, his bring-the-troops-home position, are the bedrock of his candidacy. And that is where President Bush has been undermining him, chipping away at the foundation of the Democratic candidate's platform.
In the last 4 weeks, Bush has made gigantic course changes on Iraq and foreign relations. Most of the media has called these moves flip-flops or as The Guardian puts it, a "remarkable turnaround". However, these moves are in fact constructed, nuanced changes designed to weaken the Democrats' positions going into the Fall election. Last month, Bush moved to adopt a "time horizon" for withdrawing troops from Iraq, reversing what was once a set-in-stone position against such a move. This will allow both the Bush Administration and the McCain campaign to adjust their positions on the increasingly unpopular war. McCain can now (and he has) suggest that troops CAN come home as the situation on the ground improves. With this, Obama's central position disappears. By using the vague language of "time horizon" Bush allows McCain and the Republicans to minimize the difference between Obama and themselves and appeal to independent voters, while not alienating the Republican base. This move seriously undercuts Obama's charge that McCain will not bring troops and wants a never-ending war.
A similar move by the Bush White House on diplomacy is undercutting Obama's central tenant of talking and negotiating with our enemies: Bush has announced a hundred new diplomatic hirings; the Administration has decided to station a diplomatic mission in Iran (the first in 30 years); Condoleeza Rice entered talks with Iran last month regarding their nuclear ambitions; and Rice personally delivered the Russia-Georgia ceasefire agreement to the Georgian President this week. Suddenly, George Bush has discovered the diplomacy that Obama has been campaigning for. And just as suddenly, Obama's calls for more talking and more negotiating don't seem so new and exciting; they no longer count as a "new form of politics" if the Bush government has already adopted them.
What these two abrupt changes by the Bush Administration represent is an effort to move the Republican Party closer to Barack Obama's core positions on foreign policy so as to eliminate those as viable reasons to vote for Obama. This election will be a referendum on Barack Obama and the perceived "riskiness" of electing an untested and inexperienced politician. If the Republicans can eliminate a few of the differences between Obama and McCain that may have driven voters into the Democrat's column, then Bush will have helped McCain win what should have been an unwinnable election. Voters have short attention spans and most Americans will just begin tuning in to the campaign in the next few weeks and THEN start making their decisions. If, come election day, there's increased diplomacy by the Bush government and McCain's talking troop withdrawal, it won't matter that Obama thought of them first, what will matter is that Obama will have lost his central thrust, he will have lost his campaign's foundation as a tenable issue, and he will have lost the election. And of all people, it will be thanks to George W. Bush.
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Why I Have Little Empathy for Omar Khadr
Omar Khadr was front and centre in the news this week as tapes of his interrogation were released and Canada's army of bleeding hearts and ultra-liberals called for him to be returned to Canada immediately in light of the "torture" he was enduring in Guantanamo Bay. In truth, the interrogation footage I've seen is mild. There's no screaming or violence. The interrogators are calm. Khadr is fed and has had access to medical care. I see no torture. All I see is a young extremist being forced to lie in the bed him and his family have made.
I admit, Omar Khadr is young, having been captured in Afghanistan at the young age of 15. However, I do not consider him to be a child soldier. Child soldiers are recruited by brutal regimes around the world, from the Sudan to Burma, and they are usually not 15 year old extremists who are sympathetic to the cause. Child soldiers are young children (note: not teenagers) who are forced to fight. Khadr is and has been a willing participant in his families disgraceful and dangerous association with Osama bin Laden and Muslim extremists. There are videos of Omar Khadr helping construct bomb materials for use on Western forces (including Canadian soldiers) in Afghanistan, and he was captured after an hours-long firefight, which ended when one of the two American medics who were checking for survivors was blown up by a grenade tossed by either Khadr or one of his comrades, killing 28 year old Christopher Speer. Khadr was and is an enemy combatant, an extremist and a terrorist. Yes, he was only 15, but he remains those things nonetheless. 15 is not a child. At 15 years, you know right from wrong, and Khadr knew that he and his family were out to fight the Western world, to fight all those who did not follow Islam.
Omar Khadr undoubtedly was shaped and influenced by his parents, especially his father. But does that excuse his actions? Do we let him go, patting the scamp on the head while chuckling "boys will be boys?" No. We must treat him as the terrorist he is, regardless of how he got to this point. Why his family is allowed to live in Toronto to this day, espousing their hatred and doctrine to others is another story. It is a disgrace that the Khadr family is allowed to live freely in Canada, and is allowed to bleed our health care system of tens of thousands of dollars to pay for their other son, Omar's younger brother Abdulkareem, who was paralyzed during another firefight in the Middle East, this time alongside Papa Khadr.
Omar Khadr's story is a sad one. It is terrible that more was not done to prevent the parents of this twisted family from indoctrinating their children and transforming them from innocent boys to Muslim extremists. However, it is now done. Omar Khadr is now a 21 year old extremist sitting in a detention centre for being involved with the Taliban, Al Qaeda, and Osama bin Laden. No one in Canada should be held without trial or charges or access to a lawyer. Those are rights we hold dear and if this were to happen to any Canadian anywhere in this great country, it should be stopped immediately. But this is an different circumstance. This is war. This is terrorism. And Omar Khadr should have thought of that before he helped kill troops in Afghanistan. Canada should request that the United States proceed with a trial immediately, as those legal rights are fundamental. But it is the United States' jurisdiction to hold the trial, as it was their national who was killed. Beyond that, Canada should not seek to get Khadr returned, as I doubt he would get the severe treatment that he deserves. I can far too easily imagine the image of young Omar being returned home to his family in Toronto after Canada's backwards legal system set him free and allowed him to return to his family of spies, saboteurs and terrorists. Khadr's lawyers, his family, and the bleeding hearts in this country would like to see Canadians, awash in sympathy and empathy, demand that Omar be brought home. But luckily, there are a few too many Canadians who share opinions like mine for that to happen.
I admit, Omar Khadr is young, having been captured in Afghanistan at the young age of 15. However, I do not consider him to be a child soldier. Child soldiers are recruited by brutal regimes around the world, from the Sudan to Burma, and they are usually not 15 year old extremists who are sympathetic to the cause. Child soldiers are young children (note: not teenagers) who are forced to fight. Khadr is and has been a willing participant in his families disgraceful and dangerous association with Osama bin Laden and Muslim extremists. There are videos of Omar Khadr helping construct bomb materials for use on Western forces (including Canadian soldiers) in Afghanistan, and he was captured after an hours-long firefight, which ended when one of the two American medics who were checking for survivors was blown up by a grenade tossed by either Khadr or one of his comrades, killing 28 year old Christopher Speer. Khadr was and is an enemy combatant, an extremist and a terrorist. Yes, he was only 15, but he remains those things nonetheless. 15 is not a child. At 15 years, you know right from wrong, and Khadr knew that he and his family were out to fight the Western world, to fight all those who did not follow Islam.
Omar Khadr undoubtedly was shaped and influenced by his parents, especially his father. But does that excuse his actions? Do we let him go, patting the scamp on the head while chuckling "boys will be boys?" No. We must treat him as the terrorist he is, regardless of how he got to this point. Why his family is allowed to live in Toronto to this day, espousing their hatred and doctrine to others is another story. It is a disgrace that the Khadr family is allowed to live freely in Canada, and is allowed to bleed our health care system of tens of thousands of dollars to pay for their other son, Omar's younger brother Abdulkareem, who was paralyzed during another firefight in the Middle East, this time alongside Papa Khadr.
Omar Khadr's story is a sad one. It is terrible that more was not done to prevent the parents of this twisted family from indoctrinating their children and transforming them from innocent boys to Muslim extremists. However, it is now done. Omar Khadr is now a 21 year old extremist sitting in a detention centre for being involved with the Taliban, Al Qaeda, and Osama bin Laden. No one in Canada should be held without trial or charges or access to a lawyer. Those are rights we hold dear and if this were to happen to any Canadian anywhere in this great country, it should be stopped immediately. But this is an different circumstance. This is war. This is terrorism. And Omar Khadr should have thought of that before he helped kill troops in Afghanistan. Canada should request that the United States proceed with a trial immediately, as those legal rights are fundamental. But it is the United States' jurisdiction to hold the trial, as it was their national who was killed. Beyond that, Canada should not seek to get Khadr returned, as I doubt he would get the severe treatment that he deserves. I can far too easily imagine the image of young Omar being returned home to his family in Toronto after Canada's backwards legal system set him free and allowed him to return to his family of spies, saboteurs and terrorists. Khadr's lawyers, his family, and the bleeding hearts in this country would like to see Canadians, awash in sympathy and empathy, demand that Omar be brought home. But luckily, there are a few too many Canadians who share opinions like mine for that to happen.
Monday, July 14, 2008
The 2008 Electoral Map: 275 - 263
With today being July 14, there are still 113 days until the 2008 United States Presidential Election. But despite that great length of time, during which anything can happen to change the race, I'm prepared to make my early prediction on the shape of the electoral map. In the race to 270 electoral votes, Barack Obama will indeed put some current previous red states in his column, namely Ohio, New Mexico & Iowa. However, there will not be a reshaping of the political landscape as his campaign insists. In fact, McCain will hold most of the Bush states and will pick up both New Hampshire and Michigan, putting him over the top and into the White House.
<p><strong>><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/">Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>
The electoral map is particularly difficult for Obama, because even if he can manage to pick up say, Montana or Nevada, or if he can hold New Hampshire, McCain still wins. I doubt very much that Obama will pick up any surprise wins for the Democrats. Colorado will stay red, it didn't even vote for Clinton in 1996, when he won his biggest victory. The Carolina's will stay Republican, despite Obama's popularity among black voters. And Obama was trounced in the Appalachian states during the primary, so he'll struggle to win Ohio and Pennsylvania, let alone Kentucky or West Virginia. I suspect Obama will make a lot of states closer races than they have been before, especially in the South, but he will be unable to win more than a handful.
For McCain, I'm giving him Michigan because he is polling a strong second right now, and with native son Mitt Romney becoming more and more likely to be his VP choice, Michigan will flip to red. But even if it doesn't, he still can win if he holds Ohio, which Bush won in 2000 and 2004. A lot rests on Florida for McCain, however, and that is a state he must win. If Florida goes for Obama, McCain could win Ohio AND Michigan and still lose. He must win Florida and Governor Christ, a strong supporter needs to be employed to make sure he does. The only potential coup for McCain is New Jersey, which I predict will be a lot closer than it has been in the past. I don't expect it to go to McCain, but it remains a possibility.
Final Electoral College Result: McCain - 275 Obama - 263
As those 113 days tick away, these predictions may become laughable, but they may just as likely become laudable. We'll see how I do in November.
The electoral map is particularly difficult for Obama, because even if he can manage to pick up say, Montana or Nevada, or if he can hold New Hampshire, McCain still wins. I doubt very much that Obama will pick up any surprise wins for the Democrats. Colorado will stay red, it didn't even vote for Clinton in 1996, when he won his biggest victory. The Carolina's will stay Republican, despite Obama's popularity among black voters. And Obama was trounced in the Appalachian states during the primary, so he'll struggle to win Ohio and Pennsylvania, let alone Kentucky or West Virginia. I suspect Obama will make a lot of states closer races than they have been before, especially in the South, but he will be unable to win more than a handful.
For McCain, I'm giving him Michigan because he is polling a strong second right now, and with native son Mitt Romney becoming more and more likely to be his VP choice, Michigan will flip to red. But even if it doesn't, he still can win if he holds Ohio, which Bush won in 2000 and 2004. A lot rests on Florida for McCain, however, and that is a state he must win. If Florida goes for Obama, McCain could win Ohio AND Michigan and still lose. He must win Florida and Governor Christ, a strong supporter needs to be employed to make sure he does. The only potential coup for McCain is New Jersey, which I predict will be a lot closer than it has been in the past. I don't expect it to go to McCain, but it remains a possibility.
Final Electoral College Result: McCain - 275 Obama - 263
As those 113 days tick away, these predictions may become laughable, but they may just as likely become laudable. We'll see how I do in November.
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
Are There Alarm Bells Yet?
So the Democrats have had over a month to digest the fact that Barack Obama clinched the presidential nomination. Certainly by now all the wounds have been salved, the hurt feelings have been repaired and the rift with Hillary supporters has been more or less bridged. But unfortunately for the Obama campaign and its ardent supporters in the media and the DNC elite, that doesn't seem to be the case. A recent poll out has shown a widening gap between Hillary supporters and Obama, it shows still falling support for Obama and it shows a resilient commitment to the Clinton candidacy which is all but extinguished. (www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/07/04/clinton.poll)
A month ago, before Hillary Clinton ended her bid and backed Obama, 60 percent of her supporters said they would support Barack. Now that number is down to 54%. More than 4 weeks ago, just over 1 in 5 Clinton supporters claimed they would not vote at all if their choice was Obama or McCain. Now nearly 1 in 3 say this. And way back in the beginning of June, 35% of all Democrats preferred Clinton be the nominee. Now, after his flip-flopping, his surge to the centre, after the slap-in-the-face hiring by Obama of Patti Solis Doyle, that number has climbed to 43%. The potency and resilience of those voters who do not support Obama is proving to be incredible, if not unprecedented. Can anyone hear the alarm bells ringing yet? Couple these new numbers with the fact that Obama's own internet network of supporters is now becoming a bit disillusioned with his policy changes, especially towards telecommunication spying, (apparently the largest group on his Facebook-style site is committed to getting him to change his mind on this issue) and you've got to expect that there's some alarm in the Obama campaign. And if there isn't, there should be.
A month ago, before Hillary Clinton ended her bid and backed Obama, 60 percent of her supporters said they would support Barack. Now that number is down to 54%. More than 4 weeks ago, just over 1 in 5 Clinton supporters claimed they would not vote at all if their choice was Obama or McCain. Now nearly 1 in 3 say this. And way back in the beginning of June, 35% of all Democrats preferred Clinton be the nominee. Now, after his flip-flopping, his surge to the centre, after the slap-in-the-face hiring by Obama of Patti Solis Doyle, that number has climbed to 43%. The potency and resilience of those voters who do not support Obama is proving to be incredible, if not unprecedented. Can anyone hear the alarm bells ringing yet? Couple these new numbers with the fact that Obama's own internet network of supporters is now becoming a bit disillusioned with his policy changes, especially towards telecommunication spying, (apparently the largest group on his Facebook-style site is committed to getting him to change his mind on this issue) and you've got to expect that there's some alarm in the Obama campaign. And if there isn't, there should be.
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