Why this Election was a Game Changer

Although conventional wisdom is that the Canadian federal election was an unnecessary, $300 million exercise in futility, it was in fact a game changer. How so? Because of the October 14 results, Canadians have seen the last of all of the major party leaders. The election of 2008 will go down as the last for Dion, Duceppe, Layton and Harper. The next time Canadians go to the polls, the political scene will look nothing like it does today. Everyone already knew that this election was Liberal leader Stephane Dion’s last, even before he announced his eventual resignation this week. Dion ran a disorganized campaign, allowed himself to be defined by Conservative ads for months, and was unable to connect or convince voters as his party was defeated. There are no consolation prizes in electoral politics, especially when you finish with the lowest number of seats in a generation and the lowest vote share since Confederation. Dion is done and the next election will see a new leader for the Liberals, likely chosen within the next few months. Gilles Duceppe, the Bloc Quebecios leader will not run in another election either; he barely ran in this one. Duceppe made it clear in 2007 that he wanted to get out of federal politics and lead the provincial Parti Quebecois in Quebec and only hung around for this federal election after another took the PQ position. Throughout this campaign, and especially during the debates, Duceppe seemed tired and uninterested. After 5 elections, I suspect Duceppe is tired of the political game in Ottawa. He’ll be gone come the next election. The NDP’s Jack Layton is finished too. Despite his best efforts to appear as Canada’s white, mustachioed Barack Obama, Layton was unable to realize the major gains he had foretold, gaining only 8 seats and improving the NDP vote share by less than 1%. The NDP had high hopes for Quebec and BC but was unable to win big in either. This was Layton’s 3rd election and there are rumblings that the lone Quebecois NDP MP, Thomas Mulcair may be itching to replace him. There are others in the party who say Layton has moderated the party too much and has abandoned their ideals. Either way, Layton will have a hard time staying on as leader; he’ll be gone by the next election. Finally, I predict that Conservative leader Stephen Harper will face a challenge to his leadership. Harper has run in 3 elections now, and while each showing has improved upon the last, he was unable to win a majority government when given the dual gifts of a vote split between four left wing parties and the most unappealing, ineffectual Liberal leader in decades. If Harper could not deliver a majority in this election with this political climate, will he ever be able to? You better believe that this question is being asked by conservatives across the country. Harper has done a good job building the party around himself, leaving little room for others to flourish. But he can only run a one-man ship for so long before challengers like Peter McKay, John Baird, or perhaps Peter Van Loan begin questioning his leadership, especially if the Liberals select a dynamic leader to replace Dion and the probability of a Harper-led majority declines. Whether he is forced out by a leadership review or he steps down when the writing on the wall becomes clear, Stephan Harper will be gone by the next election too. Many Canadians were exasperated with this election. Many found it unnecessary, many thought the platforms and campaigns were largely uninspiring and there was little change in regards to the composition of the House of Commons. But Canadians should be thankful for having an election this year! Sure it may have been our fourth election in eight years, and sure it may have been dull compared to the drama of the United States’ election, but because of the 2008 results, our next election is bound to be more interesting: the political landscape will change dramatically and four completely new party leaders will be ready to vie for our votes. And there’s nothing boring about that.